Why Your Numbers Don't Match Shopify, Meta, and Google

Quick answer

They will never match, and that's expected. Shopify counts orders. Meta and Google count conversions they believe their ads caused. Those are different questions. On top of that, Meta rebuilt its attribution system twice in 2026, which lowered reported conversions across most accounts without any change in actual performance.

For the number your bank account agrees with, use MER on Stats on the Agency AI home page: ad spend divided by total store sales.

Why the platforms disagree with Shopify

Shopify counts an order when it happens. It doesn't care why.

Meta and Google count a conversion when they believe their ad influenced it, inside an attribution window they define. If a customer clicks a Meta ad Monday and buys Thursday, Shopify records one order on Thursday. Meta records one conversion attributed to Monday's ad.

Now add a customer who clicks both a Meta ad and a Google ad before buying. Shopify: one order. Meta: one conversion. Google: one conversion. Three systems, three true answers, and 200% attributed revenue.

This is why Agency AI tracks MER. MER is ad spend divided by total store sales, organic and repeat orders included. Every order counts once, however the platforms argue about credit. ROAS on Stats is different: it adds up the revenue Meta and Google each attribute to your ads, so an order both platforms claim counts twice there.

What changed on Meta in 2026

Two changes, both large.

January 12, 2026. Meta removed the 7-day view and 28-day view attribution windows. The longest view-through window available is now 1 day. Advertisers relying on longer view windows saw reported conversions fall, with the largest drops in categories with long consideration cycles.

March 3, 2026. Meta narrowed the definition of a click. Click-through attribution now requires an actual link click. Likes, shares, saves, comments, and other non-link interactions no longer count as clicks. They moved to a renamed category, engage-through, which has a fixed 1-day window and now covers all ad formats, including video views of 5 seconds or more.

The consequence is subtle and worth understanding. Under the old system, someone who liked your ad on Monday and bought on Friday counted as a 7-day click-through conversion. Under the new one, that purchase doesn't qualify as click-through (no link click) and doesn't qualify as engage-through (outside the 1-day window). It disappears from attribution entirely.

Across the industry, reported conversions fell noticeably after these changes. Remarketing campaigns were hit hardest, because remarketing audiences engage socially before converting more often than cold audiences do.

Performance did not decline. Measurement changed. Don't compare your pre-March 2026 numbers to your post-March numbers directly. Set a new baseline from mid-March forward.

Meta's current default

7-day click, 1-day engage-through, 1-day view.

A conversion is attributed if the person clicked a link within 7 days, engaged with the ad within 1 day, or saw it within 1 day. When more than one applies, Meta credits click-through first, then engage-through, then view-through.

For e-commerce purchases, this default is generally the right setting. Purchases involve deliberation. People see an ad, think, and come back.

Why Google Analytics and Meta don't match

Google Analytics uses session-based attribution. Meta uses event-based. GA4 has no equivalent of view-through at all. If someone sees your Meta ad, doesn't click, and buys later, Meta counts it and GA4 has no idea the ad existed. That single difference explains a large share of the gap.

What to actually do about it

Pick one source of truth for business decisions. Shopify sales and total ad spend. That gives you MER, and it's the number your bank account agrees with. Compare it with your break-even MER, which is your gross margin as a percentage. With a 40% margin, MER above 40% means ads cost more than your gross profit.

Use platform-reported ROAS for relative comparison only. Meta's ROAS on Campaign A versus Campaign B is a useful signal. Meta's ROAS versus Shopify's revenue is not a meaningful comparison.

Don't chase the gap to zero. It won't close. Run both and read them for what each is good at.

To see both side by side, ask your AI Strategist: "Compare what Meta and Google reported last month with my Shopify sales."

Currency

Shopify, Meta and Google can each report in a different currency. Agency AI converts amounts into your brand currency at daily rates, for Stats and Manage ads. If a figure looks off by a constant factor, check Brand Info > Brand Currency. Budgets still bill in your ad account's own currency. Details: Currencies in Agency AI.

Where Agency AI gets its numbers

MER on Stats uses your total store sales, organic and repeat orders included.
NC-ROAS on Stats counts revenue from first-time customers only, so repeat buyers don't flatter it.
ROAS on Stats and in Manage ads is the revenue Meta and Google attribute to your ads, because that's the number they optimize against.

Definitions: Glossary of ad metrics.

Questions? hello@agencyai.app.